Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 122.441401 140.897583 161.860239 187.570137 218.439092 254.543342 300.308834
2025-12-21 97.698438 120.657960 149.126798 187.505628 238.640025 305.508995 401.402947
2025-12-28 86.578682 112.917019 147.898794 198.801438 272.775404 379.313891 550.075620
2026-01-04 78.013442 106.259545 145.911815 207.370187 303.518216 454.200065 721.412237
2026-01-11 71.099122 100.407013 143.513495 214.050364 331.794933 530.963496 919.185417
2026-01-18 64.728315 94.219963 139.339753 216.698061 353.394087 601.055365 1128.087901
2026-01-25 58.976729 88.099082 134.192382 216.513465 369.546357 664.694365 1346.659759
2026-02-01 53.286021 81.327652 126.987896 211.405205 375.333597 709.320691 1540.442359
2026-02-08 48.424855 75.329806 120.261674 205.964202 379.162454 750.514640 1742.378003
2026-02-15 44.362227 70.217636 114.408515 201.165316 383.172894 792.855879 1965.310361
2026-02-22 43.336569 70.145065 117.361546 213.633407 425.902389 936.259664 2544.436900
2026-03-01 41.000741 67.524817 115.347457 215.811596 446.327852 1031.224910 3029.914562
2026-03-08 39.038813 65.479039 114.348324 220.348187 474.317754 1158.279684 3721.596540
2026-03-15 36.723336 62.570216 111.378321 220.243806 491.256821 1261.388440 4406.215048
2026-03-22 36.081586 62.719711 114.423822 233.999633 547.043168 1503.120680 5901.648921
2026-03-29 35.119169 62.148834 115.925926 244.460975 596.991946 1749.685702 7713.343566
2026-04-05 34.004033 61.163451 116.435139 252.631120 642.863748 2005.189623 9929.887967
2026-04-12 32.563391 59.390242 115.052626 255.872640 675.103763 2226.906893 12291.471692
2026-04-19 30.976675 57.180677 112.476344 255.646525 696.645099 2417.951869 14782.101036
2026-04-26 29.087971 54.195570 107.874930 249.394119 697.166371 2520.707209 16771.084699
2026-05-03 27.331731 51.359769 103.353383 242.741945 694.973342 2612.228258 18876.038378
2026-05-10 25.774706 48.834484 99.317952 236.881356 694.313275 2712.721490 21332.066089
2026-05-17 25.666064 49.407566 102.570593 252.120552 774.207476 3271.289115 30749.511210